Glossary
One definition per term, including the ones the product spells more than one way.
One definition per term. Where the product uses a different word in places, that is noted.
Base rate
A node that holds historical rows and summarises them into a single figure — a rate for happened-or-not data, or a typical value otherwise. Which statistic the card states, mean or median, is set per node.
Blocked
A node Radiant cannot produce a value for, and everything downstream of it. A blocked node keeps its place on the map and shows no result; the reason appears at the top of its inspector. One blocked node does not stop the rest of the map computing.
Canvas
The map. An older name for the same thing, still visible in parts of the product. This documentation says map.
Connection
A line between two nodes recording that you think they are related, and optionally how. Connections explain the map but do not perform calculations — see Edge labels.
Diagnostic
A finding about the map, at one of three severities. An error stops a node producing a value. A warning is something you can act on. Info states a fact nobody is expected to fix, such as a Metaculus question of a type that cannot feed a forecast.
Distribution
A node holding a range rather than a single number, described by a family — uniform, skewed, or bell curve — and the percentiles that family takes.
Formula
A node whose value is computed from other nodes by an expression. Formulas refer to nodes by reference code. See Formula syntax.
Map
The working surface a project owns, holding nodes and the connections between them. Shared and live: collaborators see each other's edits as they happen.
Node
One item on the map. The kind decides what it holds and whether it contributes a value to it. See Core concepts.
Parameter
A node holding a single number you state outright.
Prediction
One person's stated view on a node. Several people can predict on the same node, and one person can hold several. They are folded into the single value the rest of the map sees, by mean or median.
Preview
The automatic simulation that updates as you edit. It stays stable while you work and is never saved. Distinct from a run.
Project
The unit you create, share, and return to. Owns one map, its history, and its permissions.
Reference code
The short identifier a formula uses to name a node — shown on the node's card and in the inspector. Codes are stable across renaming a node's title.
Run
A simulation you started deliberately, saved with its result and a frozen copy of the map. Reopening one shows the map as it was, read-only. Distinct from a preview.
Simulation
Sampling the whole map many times, drawing from each node's uncertainty, to produce a range of outcomes rather than one figure.
Version
A stored state of a map you can return to — written by a run, by Save version, automatically after the map has moved on from the last one, or by a restore capturing what it replaced.
Wire
The action that builds a formula from connections already on the map. It reads the links you drew and offers to turn them into an expression; it never converts a connection on its own.