Metaculus questions
Which Metaculus posts can go on a map, which of those can feed a forecast, and how their numbers stay current.
A Metaculus question node carries a real question and its community forecast onto your map.
What can be placed
Three post shapes can go on a map:
- Questions — a single question
- Groups of questions — a parent with subquestions
- Conditionals — an if/then pair
Notebooks cannot. They do not appear as question nodes because they do not provide the forecast data a node needs.
What can feed a forecast
Placeable and forecastable are different things. Only three question types can be read as a forecast input:
| Type | On the map | Feeds a forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Binary | Yes | Yes |
| Numeric | Yes | Yes |
| Discrete | Yes | Yes |
| Date | Yes | No |
| Multiple choice | Yes | No |
| Group of questions | Yes | No |
| Conditional | Yes | No |
Anything in the second group sits on the map as a reference card — title, link, status, and its numbers — and reports:
Metaculus … questions cannot be forecast inputs yet.
That is info, not an error. Nothing is broken; the card is doing what it can.
Why conditionals are reference-only
A conditional shows its condition and its yes/no branches side by side. Collapsing that into one number needs the probability of the condition, which comes from a different post — so Radiant shows the relationship rather than inventing the arithmetic.
Keeping the numbers current
Opening a map you can edit refreshes Metaculus questions whose data is more than an hour old.
Refresh all is a deliberate override: it refetches every question regardless of age.
Dates sit with the control that acts on them. A question node's Info section in the inspector shows its own last update under its Refresh button; Refresh all reports the oldest update on the map. Both are to the minute, in your own timezone.
A read-only map never syncs.
Two people opening at once
Radiant avoids starting a second automatic refresh when someone else is already refreshing the same map. Their results appear for everyone through the shared map. A deliberate Refresh all still runs.
What the card shows
A question card shows the community forecast and the number of forecasters behind it. It does not show a fetch date — that lives in the inspector's Info section, with the button that changes it.
A multiple-choice card puts the leading option above the list and marks it. Options keep their stated order unless the question asks for descending probability.
A group card derives its summary from every subquestion, including ones outside the compact preview. Options and subquestions expand with Show all.
Overriding a forecast
You can state your own value on a forecastable question — see Predictions. The community number remains visible as the source, and your figure becomes the one the map uses.
An untouched community forecast is shown once, not repeated as a separate result.
Importing a whole tournament
A tournament can be imported as a new project in one step from its slug, URL, or numeric ID. Each question arrives as a node with a reference code ready for formulas. Radiant reports any questions it could not import.