Core concepts
What project, map, node, connection, forecast and run each mean.
Project
A project is the unit you create, open, share, and return to. It owns one map, its history, and who can see it. The projects list is where you find them again, split into Recents, My projects, Shared, and All projects.
Everything about permission lives on the project, not on individual nodes. If someone can open the project, they can see the whole map.
Map
The map is the working surface — the thing you look at when a project is open. You place nodes on it, arrange them, and connect them.
You will also see “canvas”
Parts of the product still say canvas for the same thing. It means the map.
A map is shared and live. If someone else has the project open, you will see their cursor and their edits as they happen, and they will see yours.
Node
A node is one thing on the map. Which kind you choose decides what it can hold and whether it can contribute a value to a forecast.
| Node | Holds |
|---|---|
| Node | A title and notes. No value. |
| Text | Free text on the map, for labelling regions. |
| Parameter | A single number you state. |
| Binary probability | A probability for something that either happens or does not. |
| Distribution | A range, when you are not willing to commit to one number. |
| Base rate | Historical rows, summarised into a rate or a typical value. |
| Formula | An expression computed from other nodes. |
| Metaculus question | A question imported from Metaculus, with its community forecast. |
Only the last six contribute values to a forecast. A plain Node and a Text node are for saying what you mean to a human reader.
Connection
A connection is a line between two nodes saying you think they are related, and optionally how — causal, evidential, necessary, sufficient, or just related.
A connection does not move a number
Drawing, retyping, or deleting a connection never changes a forecast or a simulation result. The calculations use node values and formulas, not connections.
That separation is deliberate. It means you can map out how you think the world works, including relationships you have not quantified, without any of it silently affecting the arithmetic. When you do want a relationship to compute, you write a formula — and Radiant's Wire action can build one from connections you have already drawn.
See Edge labels for the relationship types.
Forecast
A forecast is the value a node contributes. Where it comes from depends on the node: you state it on a Parameter or Binary probability, it is derived from rows on a Base rate, it comes from Metaculus on a question node, or it is computed on a Formula.
Nodes that hold uncertainty hold a whole distribution, not a single number. That is the point — a Distribution node with a 10th and 90th percentile carries its spread through every formula that reads it.
Three kinds accept predictions: Binary probability, Distribution, and a Metaculus question in a type that can feed a forecast. On those, several people can state their own view, and the node folds them into one value by mean or by median. A Parameter, a Base rate and a Formula take none — they are a stated constant, retrieved data, and a derived value.
Run
A run samples the whole map many times over, drawing from each node's uncertainty, and reports what came out. It is how a map of beliefs becomes a range of outcomes.
Two things are happening, and they are easy to confuse:
- Previews update as you edit. They are automatic, run in your browser, and are never saved.
- Runs happen when you press Run simulation. They are saved, and you can reopen one later to see the map exactly as it was.
A run needs a model it can evaluate. If a node it depends on is blocked — a formula naming a code that does not exist, a base rate with no data — the run button says so rather than producing a number built on a gap.