A tool for thinking better.
Break down a problem, model how the pieces connect, and reason through the assumptions behind your decision.
Free credits while in open beta.
No credit card required.
See what your strategy depends on.
Radiant, a tool from Metaculus, is a reasoning map that stays current as the world changes. Break a strategy into forecasts, connect them, and identify the assumptions that matter most. See where your team disagrees and what would change your course.
Start with a question or decision. AI turns it into a map of assumptions you can inspect, challenge, and trace to their sources.
What Radiant does
Connect the pieces
Describe how one thing relates to another, or formalize it as a formula when you want more rigor.
Build it together
Add predictions to the same map as your team and see exactly where you disagree.
Get help from AI
Surface the drivers behind an outcome, and pull outside forecasts from Metaculus when relevant.
As flexible as a whiteboard, as powerful as a spreadsheet
A spreadsheet makes you pick one number. Radiant lets you say “somewhere between 15 and 40, probably around 22” and propagates that uncertainty forward. Sketch a rough model in minutes or construct one you’d put in front of a funder.
Bring your own AI agent
Your agent reads the map, adds nodes, runs a sensitivity analysis, and writes the changes back. No copying context by hand. Over MCP, your agent brings its own context with it: your files, your notes, your data.
Radiant is in open beta.
Start on your own, or bring us a real decision and we’ll map it with you.
Free credits while in open beta.
No credit card required.